Analysis Roundup – June 10, 2013

Next edition will be published June 17th

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NC House Released Budget Proposal, Comparison to Senate Available

The NC House released their 2013-15 biennium budget proposal late Sunday evening. The bill will be debated in the House Appropriations Committee, starting 8:30am tomorrow morning (click here to listen to the meeting as it happens).

Late this afternoon, the NC League of Municipalities published a comparison (click here to view) of how the House plan impacts cities and towns within the state, and how these impacts compare to the version already passed by the Senate. Overall, the House version appears to avoid some of the more noticeable cuts to programs and allowances provided for municipal governments, including the following:

  • Senate budget eliminates the provisional hold harmless allotment for select local governments, while the House version continues it
  • Senate budget eliminates funding for the NC Rural Center, reallocating funds for a new program to be administered by the Department of Commerce. The House proposal, on the other hand, does not eliminate funding and actually increases funding by $3.4 million in FY 2015.
  • Senate budget eliminates the Clean Water Trust Fund, while the House proposal continues and increases funding support.
  • Senate budget reduces Parks & Recreation Trust Fund Grant program by approximately $16.5 million, while the House proposal does not.

We will update this post to include analysis of the House proposal for counties once it becomes available from NCACC.

House Proposal Resources:

Appropriations Committee Report

Budget Proposal (Bill)

WRAL Stories:

House budget lays out stark differences with Senate

House budget subcommittee documents (includes links)

NC House Tax Reform Revised

The NC House will likely vote this week on a tax reform bill that was revised last week to provide some protection for municipal governments with respect to their revenue from utility franchise taxes.

A rundown comparing the House plan to the Senate plan and an alternative proposal (provided by the NCLM) has been updated to reflect these changes (click here to view).

NCLM provided an overview of the change in last Friday’s LeagueLINC Newsletter:

The previous version of HB 998 provided that each city and town would receive distributions each year in the future equal to the amount it received in electricity and natural gas franchise tax distributions for FY 13-14. The new version of the bill will continue to keep city electricity and natural gas revenue at the FY 13-14 level or higher, but only if sales of gas and electricity do not decline below the FY 13-14 level. While such a decline in electricity sales is unlikely, the sensitivity of natural gas sales to winter temperatures makes a decline in these sales more possible.

Bond Referendum Debt Information Bill Modified

Click here to view the revised version.

Per NCLM:

The Senate Finance Committee gave its approval this week to HB 248 Taxpayer Debt Information Act, which would require bond order information to include an estimate of the interest to be paid on the bond, and would require that any bond referendum include a statement that the bond repayment will include interest and that additional taxes may be required for repayment. The League opposed the original version of the bill because it required the estimate of the amount of interest be written into the referendum. Bond attorneys had indicated to the State Treasurer that this requirement could invalidate a debt issuance because interest rates at the time of the issuance are likely to be different than estimated rates submitted on the ballot. The current version of the bill avoids this problem.

LGC Issues Memo on New Unemployment Insurance Requirements

The Local Government Commission distributed guidance last week on the requirements regarding reform of the Unemployment Insurance program adopted by the Governor and General Assembly earlier this year.

Click Here to View the LGC Memo (PDF)

The instructions appear to align with the information we shared in a special presentation that was part of our Analysis Roundup on March 22nd.

Click Here to View the Original NCLGBA Tutorial

North Carolina GDP Grows 2.7% in 2012

The state’s gross domestic product grew 2.7% last year, on pace with all of our neighboring states except Tennessee, though higher than the regional (2.1%) and national (2.1%) aggregates.

gsp_0613SE

Comparatively-speaking, North Carolina continues to outperform the regional and national economy, a trend that has continued since 2005.

ComparativeGDPGrowth9712NC

 

Walden’s Outlook for Summer 2013

NC State University Economist Dr. Michael Walden recently-published his Economic Outlook for the summer. You can view it here (PDF).

Here’s some of Dr. Walden said about the North Carolina economy at the present:

Evidence suggests the North Carolina economy has been growing slightly faster than the national economy. Growth in both labor compensation (a proxy for gross domestic product) and payroll employment has been better in the state during the past three years. The state’s retail, housing, and public revenue sectors also show solid signs of having turned the corner to improvement…

North Carolina is expected to add over 100,000 payroll jobs in both 2013 and 2014, and by the end of 2014 the state’s jobless rate will have dropped to 6.8%. Four factors will push the state’s economic recovery: a manufacturing revival, a construction surge, a boost in college graduates attracting knowledge-based industries, and an influx of retirees. The Triangle and Asheville regions will have unemployment rates under 6% by the end of 2014, while Rocky Mount will still have a double-digit jobless rate…

True to the state’s pattern of a more volatile business cycle, labor compensation fell relatively more during the peak recessionary year of 2009 in North Carolina than in the U.S. However, the rebound in labor compensation in 2010, 2011, and 2012 has been as strong or slightly stronger in the state than in the nation. The state’s different economic structure – primarily its greater reliance on manufacturing – is the primary reason given for both deeper recessions and stronger recoveries in North Carolina compared to the country…

The economic divides in North Carolina likely won’t close in the near future. Economic trends and technologies appear to be favoring metropolitan areas over non-metropolitan regions. As growth continues, metropolitan areas will likely expand their geographic scope – hence, counties designated as metropolitan will likely increase in the future. Challenges will persist for bringing
economic growth to all regions of North Carolina.

Here are Dr. Walden’s forecasts for national, statewide and metropolitan unemployment.

WaldenUnempForecast0613