Membership Time! Join or Renew for 2014-15

New and renewal memberships are being received for 2014-15. 

Please take a moment to read the attached information; become a member of this innovative organization for the first time, or renew your ongoing membership and continue your participation!  Be sure to encourage your co-workers and colleagues to update their registration in the next few weeks as well.

The  NCLGBA’s main goals and benefits include:

Strengthening communications and provide opportunities for professional growth and development through the exchange of ideas. For example, the NCLGBA’s website offers an analysis round-up, economic updates, relevant articles, and a Career Gateway where members can post and learn about career opportunities

Investigating, studying, discussing, and recommending innovation in the application of budget and evaluation methods. For example, membership includes access to the NCLGBA ListServ where local government employees can share and request information from municipalities and counties across the state

Providing training and education programs through our events and meetings. For example, the NCLGBA hosts two state-wide conferences annually (discounted rate for members) and offers the North Carolina Budget & Evaluation Officer certification program

Whether you are a city or county manager, budget or finance director, budget and management analyst, financial administrator, or serving in an operating department with budget and evaluation responsibilities, the NCLGBA may offer significant value to your municipality, county, or North Carolina authority or cooperative.  The cost of NCLGBA membership remains only $50 for FY2014-2015.

Click Here for Membership Letter

Click Here for Membership Application (DOC)

Click here for Membership Invoice (XLS)

Additional information regarding the organization, including conference announcements and the budget and evaluation officer certification, can be found on the Association’s Web site - www.NCLGBA.org. You can also learn more about becoming a member of the NCLGBA through the website by going to NCLGBA.org/Membership.

Also, don’t forget to mark your calendars for these upcoming conferences:

2014 Winter Conference at the Pinehurst Resort, Pinehurst, NC, December 10-12, 2014

2015 Summer Conference – To Be Announced

The NCLGBA board members and planning committee are hard at work developing the winter conference program in Pinehurst. If you are interested in helping to plan the Winter Conference or you have topic or speaker suggestions, please contact Josh Edwards(josh.edwards@durhamnc.gov) or Mark Matthews (Mark.Matthews@wakegov.com). The planning committee will meet on Friday, September 26th at 12:00pm at the Wake County Justice Center (301 S. McDowell Street, Raleigh, NC) for the Winter Conference Planning meeting.

We hope to see everyone there!

Please contact Justin Amos 704-336-5022 or jamos@charlottenc.gov with any questions or suggestions regarding membership renewals.

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Economic Update (August 6th Edition)

With the plethora of information out there in recent weeks, including release of new GDP and State and Local Employment Data, it doesn’t hurt to take a look at what’s going on.

Don’t forget to check out the Economic Update presentation from our Summer Conference

State & Local Employment – June 2014

These stats were published early last week and reflect the impact of summer transition for education and other academic year-oriented workers. Prior to the recession, these employment reductions would be offset by increases due to summertime employment, often by high school and college students. While that is still the case in selection locations (often tied to resorts and vacation destinations), much of North Carolina does experience employment decline in June, though the unemployment rate remains relatively unchanged due to a corresponding decrease in the active labor force (they’ll be back in the fall, or have retired).

Take a look at the following charts to see how things are going right now for North Carolina Counties and MSAs:

Jun14NCempMSA

 

Jun14NCcounty12mth

 

Jun14NCcountyYr14As you can see, despite the June adjustment, most North Carolina counties have experienced employment growth since the start of 2014, and the majority are ahead of their counts from last June.

Other Sources

The following notes are pulled from a variety of sources, including multiple Wells Fargo Economics reports. You also might want to take a look at the following reports and updates published this summer by prominent NC economists:

Dr. Michael Walden’s Summer 2014 Economic Outlook

Dr. John Connaughton’s Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast

GDP/GSP (BEA, Connaughton)

  • National: 2nd Quarter up 4% (year-to-year), real GDP 2.4% (up less than 1% compared to revised 1st Quarter); 1.8% growth in 2013; strong export growth, stable trade deficit
  • Statewide: +2.3% in 2013 (first year outpacing National growth since recession); Manufacturing -0.4%

Employment (BLS & NC Commerce, 8/1/14)

  • National (July): Up 209,000, 12-month average at 214,000 (still below break-even), participation still at 63%; increase in health benefit costs still outpacing total benefits, 50% more growth than wages
  • North Carolina (June): Down 26,700 for month, up 57,000 year-to-year; 2013 +1.8%,-0.2% in Manufacturing; Since 2010, strongest growth in Professional/Business Services, weakest in Manufacturing and Construction; private sector real hourly wages declined 4 of last 5 years

Short-Term Economic Outlook (Leading Economic Indicators, Walden)

  • National: Increased 0.3% in July, up 3% in 2014
  • North Carolina: No change for July, up 4.5% year-to-year; unemployment claims down 50%, permits down 13%, employee hours up 5.6%, earnings up 3.5%

Business & Consumer Confidence (Multiple Sources)

  • Small Business Optimism improving, but still below growth point; hiring plans improving; most concerned about impact of regulations
  • Consumer confidence improving, up for July but still below pre-recession levels
  • Spending growth still outpacing income

Retail Sales (Census & NC Department of Revenue)

  • National: +4.3% year-to-year, driven by vehicle sales; +3.6% for 2014
  • North Carolina: Up 3% for 2014

Loan Demand (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey)

  • Home loan demand back up to summer 2013 levels (cycle restored), more banks loosening standards
  • Strong demand for auto loans and revolving debt
  • Stronger cyclical demand for commercial & industrial loans (still not at pre-recession levels)

Construction (US Department of Commerce)

  • Total current activity value still below $1 Trillion (pre-recession high, $1.2 Trillion)
  • Residential construction fell slightly in June, still up 7% compared to last year
  • Non-residential construction down nearly 3% in June, still up nearly 5% compared to last year
  • State & local government activity still sluggish (no growth since end of recovery)
    • Analysts consider this a “significant drag” on economic activity

Industrial Output (ISM; Richmond Fed)

  • Nationally: Factory orders up 3%, shipments up 4%, composite index recovering from winter slump
  • Mid-Atlantic (IncludesNC): Strong outlook across all indicators

Non-Manufacturing Output (ISM; Richmond Fed)

  • National: Composite, new orders and employment indices up to pre-recession levels, outlook positive
  • Mid-Atlantic (IncludesNC): Positive movement across indicators, strong expectations for future demand
  • Carolinas: Positive outlook, though softening some; challenge finding qualified workers

Consumer Spending (BLS)

  • 4% growth in personal income and personal expenditures
  • Significant inflation impact on expenditures
    • Core: +2.5% pace
    • Total: +3.0% pace
  • Strong growth in durable growth sales, up 14% in last 3 months, 5.8% year-to-year

Vehicle Sales (Wells Fargo, ESRI)

  • Annualized rate up 1 million in 2014 (16.5 million)

Housing (Multiple Sources)

  • Starts improving, but NOWHERE near pre-recession levels
  • Multi-family > Single-family
  • National and State prices up 5%
  • Millenials aren’t buying house (and maybe won’t)

An Agricultural State (Wells Fargo, Connaughton)

  • 1.6% of GDP (significantly greater than neighboring states), $7.7 Billion in Output (9th largest in US)
  • 28,800 employees (6th highest in US)
  • 2013 saw 16.4% growth in National Output, continued growth expected in 2014
  • North Carolina: 21.6% growth in 2013; forecast 10.9% growth in 2014 (strongest of sectors)

The Fed’s Strategy (Wells Fargo)

  • Eliminate QE asset purchases in October (estimate $2.5T in Treasuries on books EOY, $1.8T in MBS)
  • Need to raise interest rates (inflation, GDP growth); current environment detrimental to security and liquidity-focused investors (savers, Seniors, local governments)
  • Growth in asset purchases mirrors stock market performance since 2009

Summary: Condition & Predictions

  • Wells Fargo: Growth impact with broaden beyond strong present sectors (energy, technology, motor vehicles)
  • Walden (NC State)
    • Total household wealth improving on financial side, housing wealth stagnant
    • Anticipate 2.5% inflation in 2014 (highest since 2011)
    • Localized growth disparities likely to persist
  • John Connaughton (UNCC)
    • 2014: +1.9% GSP Growth , +0.8% in Manufacturing; +1.5% Statewide employment growth (59,700 jobs), +2.6% in Manufacturing
    • 2015: +2.1% GSP Growth, +2.1% Agriculture, +1.4% Manufacturing; +2.4% Employment (101,500 jobs), +5.1% Manufacturing (strongest sector)

 

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New Fiscal Year brings New Job Opportunities

This week, we’ve already made several additions to the Career Gateway. Take a look at the following positions currently advertised with jurisdictions in North Carolina (and beyond):

Operating Budget Manager – City of Raleigh (Closes 8/13)

Budget Manager – Davidson County (First Review 7/31)

Budget & Management Analyst (2 Openings) – City of Raleigh (Closes 8/8)

Budget & Management Services Director – Wake County (Closes 8/13)

Finance Director – Nash County (First Review 7/25)

Finance Director – Franklin County (First Review 8/6)

Finance Director/CFO – Beaufort County (Open Until Filled)

Budget Analyst (2 Openings) – Metropolitan Nashville/Davidson County (TN) (Closes 8/11)

Don’t forget, if your jurisdiction has an opening you want shared on the NCLGBA Career Gateway, email jobs@nclgba.org.

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