Summer 2014 Conference Registration Available

Webinar

Click Here to Download the Registration Packet

Registration Deadline &
Hotel Reservation Cutoff Date – June 24th

Come Celebrate our 25th Anniversary!

Join colleagues from across the state in celebrating a quarter century of NCLGBA professional development. Join us in honoring our past presidents,  Jack Vogt, retired UNC School of Government professor, and other key people during the Thursday, July 17 luncheon. Plenary and concurrent sessions will include capital financing, Department of Revenue updates on the Tax and Tag program, and practical tips for how to streamline next year’s budget process. The speaker line up also includes UNC School of Government professor David Ammons speaking about performance management with the NCLGBA’s first president, Ellen Liston, who recently retired as deputy manager of Coral Springs, Florida.

Ethics Workshop Opens Conference

The Summer 2014 conference will kick off with ICMA’s Director of Ethics Martha Perego who will lead a workshop on ethics. With North Carolina roots – she was a budget intern in Durham in 1979-80 and University of North Carolina MPA alum – and decades of local government management experience, Martha will facilitate an interactive discussion of ethical leadership within the budgeting profession.

Scholarships Available

The NCLGBA will be offering one scholarship to the Summer NCLGBA conference, which includes registration and two nights hotel reservations. This opportunity will be open to any open to Masters of Public Administration students or first time conference attendees. Please share the news with colleagues and summer interns, and be on the lookout for the application to be posted to the listserv. For more information, contact Lesley Reder at RederL@concordnc.gov

Reserve Your Hotel Room

The Grandover has generously donated a free room night to one NCLGBA conference attendee. Make your hotel reservation ($163 per night, call 336-294-1800 for a reservation, group code “NCLGBA”) before May 15 to be entered into the drawing!

Call for Pictures

As a part of the 25th Anniversary celebration, the Board is putting out an all-call for member photos from the 1980s to today!  If you have photos from past conferences, other budget-related events, or other fun 1980s/1990s/2000s personal photos to share, would you send them to RederL@concordnc.gov? Big hair, stone-washed jeans, tapered leg khakis, neon colors, crazy-collared suits, shoulder pads – we’d like them all!

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Message from NCLGBA President, Katie Lumb

Greetings:

Friday morning before the first session, when I began to recognize Heather, Josh and the rest of the planning committee, I was so stunned by the fact no one was actually in the room that I wasn’t able to finish my thoughts.  Happily Josh was able to pick up the ball before the final session.

I had wanted to repeat what I’d told the Board and Heather in private.  Heather did an outstanding job planning a conference based on a contract signed 18 months previously and working with a very uncooperative new management.  Despite these obstacles, the 2013 Winter Conference was one of the best in memory due to Heather’s tireless work.

A leader is only as good as the team they lead and I have been very blessed in this regard during my time on the Board.  Words cannot express how deeply I appreciate Heather, Josh, and everyone else connected with making the Winter Conference the success it was.

I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas and a healthy, Happy New Year!

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It’s Membership Time for 2013-14!

Click Here for Membership Forms & Payment Invoices

It’s once again time to renew your membership in NCLGBA. If you haven’t in a while, there’s no time like the present.

Membership in NCLGBA remains very affordable, with active memberships only costing $50/year. Students and retirees can also join for $25/year.

Membership benefits include significant discounts to our Summer and Fall Conferences. You will also help support North Carolina’s ONLY professional association for budgeting professionals, and one of the strongest public financial professional organizations in the Southeast.

Click here to visit our membership page and download a membership form and renewal invoice. You also have the option to pay your membership online (via PayPal).

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NCLM’s Nida discusses FY15 Shared Revenue Outlook (Webinar Recording)

Chris Nida, Director of Research & Policy Analysis for the North Carolina League of Municipalities, joined NCLGBA’s Kenneth Hunter (City of Rocky Mount) on April 9th for a webinar/conference call to review the League’s FY 2015 edition of its annual projection report for Shared State/Municipal Revenues.

A video/audio recording of the webinar is available below (the first few minutes were not recorded due to an error, but they do not inhibit the level of information shared). Nida’s commentary focused primarily on the report, and also included discussion of ongoing General Assembly debate over privilege license taxes, as well as implementation of changes to taxes on the sale of electricity and natural gas services.

Click Here to Download the following Documentation:

Nida also mentioned the most recent report on State General Fund Revenues, which was published this week. Click here to download their 3rd Quarter FY 2014 report.

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Analysis Brief – April 7, 2014 (NC Economic Outlook Summary)

Don’t forget about our upcoming Summer Conference, July 16th-18th at Grandover Resort in Greensboro (click here for more info).

NC Economic Outlook Summary

Wells Fargo released a seasonal outlook on North Carolina’s economy late last Thursday (click here). The report covers several metrics and provides comprehensive information on statewide trends. Here are the highlights:

  • Statewide employment conditions are improving, with net growth in jobs across all industry groups within the state and significant reductions in the unemployment since last summer. Professional and business services provide the largest share of job growth (4.5%).
  • About 70% of job growth the past 4 years took place in the Raleigh, Durham-Chapel Hill and Charlotte metro areas (MSAs).
  • Statewide manufacturing job growth lags other sectors, creating issues of disparity with manufacturing-intensive areas of the State.
  • Commercial real estate activity improving in areas of strong job growth.
  • Apartment construction in Charlotte is matching demand, while Raleigh’s increased construction rates (compared to demand) provide a slight increase in vacancies.
  • Single-family housing construction permits continue showing some improvement, but they still fall significantly below pre-recession levels.
  • Housing market prices, as measured in North Carolina by the CoreLogic HPI, show continued, modest improvement, with the metric appearing close to pre-recession levels. Nationally, the rate of recent growth is faster, but the index remains significantly below pre-recession levels.

The report also included these highlights regarding North Carolina’s key metro areas:

  • Raleigh experienced 4% year-to-year growth in total nonfarm employment, driven by nearly 10% growth in business & professional services.
  • Employment growth remains slow in Greensboro and Winston-Salem, reflecting continued challenges in the Triad area.
  • Asheville and Charlotte experienced strong growth in line with statewide trends (~3% to 4%), with Asheville’s housing market also recovering at a strong rate.

Following requests from several jurisdictions, we asked for and received chart sets for each North Carolina metro (see links below for PDFs):

North Carolina (Statewide)

Asheville

Burlington

Charlotte

Durham-Chapel Hill

Fayeteville

Greensboro

Greenville

Hickory

Jacksonville

Raleigh

Rocky Mount

Wilmington

Winston-Salem

Connaughton Updates Sector Growth, Job Forecasts

Last month, UNC-Charlotte’s John Connaughton produced his spring 2014 economic forecast, reporting 2013 gross state product (GSP) growth of 2.5% and 2014 GSP growth of 3%. Agriculture experienced the most significant year-to-year growth in GSP for 2013 (+22.7%), following by entertainment & hospitality (+4.9%), transporting, warehousing & utilities (+4.3%) and business & professional services (+4.1%). Manufacturing was relatively unchanged (+0.1%) and reflected about 20% of the total state economy (second to finance, insurance and real estate). Agriculture is expected to grow another 11% in 2014, with manufacturing projecting 2.7% growth, 2.2% for entertainment & hospitality, and 1.8% for business & professional services. Connaughton also anticipates net statewide job growth of 60,200 jobs  (1.5%) in 2014, slightly less than 2013 growth (64,500, up 1.6%). Connaughton found the information sector with the highest rate of growth in 2013 (+7.6%), but he does not anticipate sector growth continuing at the same pace for 2014 (+0.7%), surpassed by transportation/warehousing/utilities (+3.3%), construction (+3.7%), and entertainment/hospitality and business/professional services (+1.7%).

Walden’s LEI Outlook Not Promising

For March, the NCSU Index of Leading Economic Indicators, presented by Dr. Michael Walden, experienced another decline, dropping 1.6% to its lowest level since last August. The overall trend remains positive, and 6% than last March, and is potentially impacted in recent months due to traditional winter slow down and worse-than-usual weather. Permit activity, hours worked and employment earnings all showed declines, as did the number of jobless claims. Click here to review the March report.

PNC Identifies Improved Business Owner Outlook

PNC Bank’s latest survey of NC-based small-and middle-market business owners (click here) provided some room for optimism in coming months. 48% of respondents indicated anticipated growth in sales over the next six months, up significantly from 34% last October. Expectations for increased profit grew slightly from 32% to 37%, while hiring growth expectations grew a little, from 8% to 12%. Increased anticipation for growth was also met with slight reduction in respondents expecting contraction in sales (from 9% to 7%) and profits (from 17% to 16%). An unchanged 8% still anticipate decreasing staff, while 76% anticipated remaining the same. With respect to economic outlook, strong optimism declined with respect to both the national (from 11% to 8%) and in-state economies (from 15% to 10%), with prospects for North Carolina still remaining stronger than nationally. Moderate optimism on the state optimism grew from 41% to 54%, helping reduce pessimism from 42% to 36%. At the same, the survey also showed declines or continued lows in the rates of businesses anticipating upcoming capital investment (53%), pay raises (19%), taking out new loans (14%), and housing price increases (39%). Substantial majority of respondents (70%) do not anticipate increasing prices during the next six months.

Gas Prices, Now and Upcoming

Fuel040714

Crude oil prices have subsided some from recent spikes facilitated by unrest in Ukraine, now within a couple percentage points of last year’s mark. As for fuel, prices for unleaded are picking up with the arrival of the spring, though are still a few cents below their levels 12 months ago. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its next short term outlook this Tuesday. Their March report anticipates stable prices for the coming year, with potential for a decline in annual average price for 2015. Locally, Diesel prices also appear to be showing some reduction, at least not growing in relation to recent increases with unleaded.

 

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