Analysis Brief – September 16, 2013

Some NCLGBA Business to start off:

Click Here for 2013-14 NCLGBA Membership Information
Winter Conference Planning Meeting – Friday, October 4th – Page-Walker Arts & History Center (Cary) – Contact Josh Edwards for more information (Josh.Edwards@TownofCary.org or 919-462-3852)
Winter Conference – December 11th to 13th – Grove Park Inn, Asheville (More information to come)

Charts, Charts & More Charts

Dr. Walden’s Leading Indicator Report shows Positive Signs

“The NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (the “Index”), a forecast of the economy’s direction four to six months ahead, moved in July to its highest level since early 2008. The gain was driven by a substantial drop in initial jobless claims and a modest improvement in the national leading index. All other components of the Index backtracked slightly.”

Connaughton also sees growth in 2013 for US, NC

UNC-Charlotte economist, Dr. John Connaughton, presented his latest economic forecast on September 10th. Among his predictions:

2.1% growth in Gross State Product (GSP) for 2013, below the 2.7% pace in 2012, though growth will be seen across all 15 economic sectors (industries)
2014 GSP Growth projected to be 3.3%, returning to long-term economic average
Agriculture will grow 3.5% in 2013, then 16.5% in 2014
North Carolina will see net job growth of 53,100 in 2013, additional net 86,000 growth in 2014
Growth pace to accelerate through second half of this year due to increased consumer confidence and improvement in housing market
Hospitality and Leisure Services only expected to grow 1.5% in 2013, 1.0% in 2014
Despite job growth, unemployment will remain stagnant at 9.0% for 2013 and 2014, due in part to increased labor force participation and lack of substantial growth

Expansion to remain Steady, Slow

Wells Fargo’s latest outlooks for 2014 and 2015 remain consistent with their forecast for slow, steady growth, with pace similar to the prior four years of overall global economic expansion.

Gas Prices Remain Steady despite Oil Climb

Retail gasoline prices did pick up a little towards the summer, and oil prices have increased recently due to unrest in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East. Overall, national and state retail averages remain more than 10% down compared to a year ago.

Form a longer time horizon, consumers and local governments have seen an annual rate of gasoline price inflation of ~15% or so over the past 7 years.

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