Analysis Brief – September 16, 2013

Some NCLGBA Business to start off:

Charts, Charts & More Charts

Dr. Walden’s Leading Indicator Report shows Positive Signs

“The NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (the “Index”), a forecast of the economy’s direction four to six months ahead, moved in July to its highest level since early 2008. The gain was driven by a substantial drop in initial jobless claims and a modest improvement in the national leading index. All other components of the Index backtracked slightly.”

WaldenLeadingIndex0813

 Connaughton also sees growth in 2013 for US, NC

UNC-Charlotte economist, Dr. John Connaughton, presented his latest economic forecast on September 10th. Among his predictions:

  • 2.1% growth in Gross State Product (GSP) for 2013, below the 2.7% pace in 2012, though growth will be seen across all 15 economic sectors (industries)
  • 2014 GSP Growth projected to be 3.3%, returning to long-term economic average
  • Agriculture will grow 3.5% in 2013, then 16.5% in 2014
  • North Carolina will see net job growth of 53,100 in 2013, additional net 86,000 growth in 2014
  • Growth pace to accelerate through second half of this year due to increased consumer confidence and improvement in housing market
  • Hospitality and Leisure Services only expected to grow 1.5% in 2013, 1.0% in 2014
  • Despite job growth, unemployment will remain stagnant at 9.0% for 2013 and 2014, due in part to increased labor force participation and lack of substantial growth

 Expansion to remain Steady, Slow

Wells Fargo’s latest outlooks for 2014 and 2015 remain consistent with their forecast for slow, steady growth, with pace similar to the prior four years of overall global economic expansion.

Gas Prices Remain Steady despite Oil Climb

Retail gasoline prices did pick up a little towards the summer, and oil prices have increased recently due to unrest in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East. Overall, national and state retail averages remain more than 10% down compared to a year ago.

GasPrices091613

Form a longer time horizon, consumers and local governments have seen an annual rate of gasoline price inflation of ~15% or so over the past 7 years.

Other Articles of Note

Academic to lead NC rural economic development (BusinessWeek)

The Rise of Cities and the Mayors who run Them (Governing)

How to Find Time for that Important Project (Michael Hyatt)

Why Generation Y Yuppies are Unhappy (Huffington Post)

The gas tax is running out of gas (News & Observer)

Who will pay for Medicare? (Harvard School of Public Health)

Application Period Open for 2013 NCLGBA Conference Scholarships – Deadline April 30th

Click Here to Download an Application

The NC Local Government Budget Association (NCLGBA) is excited to announce the opening of our annual Conference Scholarship Program for current Masters’ program Public Administration and Public Policy students. The scholarship program provides an opportunity for deserving students to attend either the summer or winter annual conference.

One of the many benefits to students who attend the conference is the potential to network with more than 100 local government officials. Students will also hear from an excellent slate of presenters about a variety of issues and opportunities that North Carolina local governments are dealing with right now. The Summer 2013 conference: Learn, Connect, Succeed, will feature presentations from internationally‐known philosopher Tom Morris and current president of the American Planning Association, Mitchell Silver.

Universities in North Carolina have partnered with the NCLGBA in the past to promote this scholarship program. Faculty and staff are encouraged to pass along the  application form to their students (click here for the application).

Encouraging them to participate in associations like ours is an excellent way to develop professionalism and continue their education throughout their careers.

NCLGBA’s Summer 2013 conference is July 10‐12th at Shell Island Resort in
Wrightsville Beach. The Winter 2013 conference will be at The Grove Park Inn in
Asheville in early December.

The deadline for applications is April 30th. Winners will be announced May 10th.

Questions should be directed to Lesley Reder, NCLGBA Second Vice-President, by calling 704-920-5263, or email to rederl@concordnc.gov.

Click Here to Download an Application

Join & Renew Your NCLGBA Membership for 2012-13

Click Here for Membership Forms & Payment Invoices

It’s once again time to renew your membership in NCLGBA. If you haven’t in a while, there’s no time like the present.

Membership in NCLGBA remains very affordable, with active memberships only costing $45/year. Students and retirees can also join for $25/year.

Membership benefits include a subscription to our new “Quarterly Report” newsletter and significant discounts to our Summer and Fall Conferences. You will also help support North Carolina’s ONLY professional association for budgeting professionals, and one of the strongest public financial professional organizations in the Southeast.

Click here to visit our membership page and download a membership form and renewal invoice. You also have the option to pay your membership online (via PayPal).

 

NCLGBA Winter Conference @ Great Wolf focuses on Budget Innovation & Creativity

Conference Page Updated! Click Here for Winter 2012 Conference Information!

“Innovation & Creativity” will be the central theme of NCLGBA’s Winter 2012 Budget Conference, December 5th-7th at Great Wolf Lodge in Concord.

Sessions on Wednesday, December 5th, and Thursday, December 6th, will focus on discussions and techniques local budget practitioners can use to improve their processes, achieve the goals of their governing bodies and uphold critical and immutable standards for fiscal responsibility and respect for citizen liberty and credibility with the taxpayer.

Session topics fitting this core theme include Customer Service, Change Management, Planning for Changing Demographics and Challenges in Capital Planning.

Rooms at Great Wolf Lodge will be $109/night for Wednesday and Thursday evening. Rooms are available for Friday night for $139. Reservation cutoff is November 14th, and reservations can be made by calling call 866-944-9653, or book online at www.greatwolf.com/concord/waterpark. The rate code is “LGBA2012.”

Registration is $165 for members and $225 for non-members. Registration includes the Wednesday evening reception, breakfast and lunch on Thursday, and breakfast on Friday. Full-time students can also register for $75. Deadline for registration is November 21st.

Click here to go to the updated Conference page and download the Winter 2012 Conference Registration Packet.

 

 

Summer 2012 Conference Information

For information on restaurants and other activities and facilities in the Wilmington area, please consult the following sites:

www.wilmingtondowntown.com
www.wilmingtonandbeaches.com

Take advantage of the following amenities at the Hilton Wilmington Riverside Hotel:

  • Swimming Pool is located on the riverfront side of the hotel and is accessible from the ground level
  • 24-Hour Fitness Room is located near the elevator on the 3rd Floor
  • The lobby café and restaurant are both open until 10:00pm

Click Here for the Hotel Website

 

Conference Agenda

Wednesday, July 25th

1:00-1:30pm, Registration, Cape Fear Lobby

1:30-1:45pm, Welcome w/Bill Saffo, Mayor, City of Wilmington, Cape Fear Salon A

1:45-3:15pm, Building a Better Mousetrap, Cape Fear Salon A

Moderated by Blake Hart

Presented by Hyong Yi, Budget & Management Director, Mecklenburg County

3:15-3:30pm, Break

3:30-4:30pm, Concurrent Sessions

Legislative Update – Cities, Cape Fear Salon A

Moderated by Clayton Hainline

Presented by Karl Knapp, Director of Research & Policy Analysis, North Carolina League of Municipalities

Legislative Update—Counties, Cape Fear Salon B

Moderated by Jamie Privuznak

Presented by Rebecca Troutman, Intergovernmental Relations Director, North Carolina Association of County Commissioners

 5:15-7:15pm, Reception, Poolside Patio, Grand Concourse, Magnolia Room

Thursday, July 26th

8:00-8:30am, Continental Breakfast, Cape Fear Lobby

8:30-10:00am, Work/Life Balance, Cape Fear Salon A

Moderated by April Campbell & Laura Altizer

Presented by Shannon Tufts, Assistant Professor & Director, Center for Public Technology, UNC School of Government

10:00-10:15am, Break

10:15-11:45am, Concurrent Sessions

Public Enterprise Rate Setting & Revenue Trends, Dudley Room

Moderated by Karl Knapp

Presented by Jeff Hughes, Director, Environmental Finance Center, UNC School of Government

Conflict Management/Negotiation, Cape Fear Salon A

Moderated by Matt Brinkley

Presented by John Stephens, Associated Professor, Public Dispute Resolution Center, UNC School of Government

Mobile Technology, Cape Fear Salon B

Moderated by Robin Barham

Presented by Bill Dusch, Data Services Director, City of Concord; L. Eddie Stanley, GISP, Vice President, Mobile 311, Raleigh; Bobby Kivett, Public Works Director (Retired), City of Asheville

11:45am-1:30pm, Lunch, Introduction of Sponsors & Announcements, Cape Fear Salon A

1:45-3:00pm, Budget Presentation, Cape Fear Salon A

Moderated by Justin Amos & Adrian Cox

Presented by Susan Moran, Public Information Officer, Town of Cary & Hyong Yi, Budget & Management Director, Mecklenburg County

3:00-3:15pm, Break

3:15-5:00pm, Concurrent Sessions

PowerPoint Skills, Cape Fear Salon B

Moderated by Blake Hart

Presented by Dale Roenigk, Director, North Carolina Benchmarking Project

Convention Center Mobile Workshop, Off-Site

Moderated by Katie McCoy & Linda Davis

Presented by Sterling Cheatham, City Manager, City of Wilmington; Debra Mack, Finance Director, City of Wilmington; and Susan J. Eaton, General Manager, Wilmington Convention Center

 Friday, July 27th

8:00-9:00am, Full Breakfast, Cape Fear Lobby

9:00-10:15am, Citizen Engagement, Cape Fear Salon A

Moderated by David Scarborough

Presented by Melissa Tabert, Communications Manager/Public Information Officer, City of Wilmington; and Justin Amos, Budget & Evaluation Analyst, City of Charlotte

10:15-10:30am, Break

10:30-11:45am, Economic Update, Cape Fear Salon A

Moderated by Kirsten Larson

Presented by Dr. Michael Walden, Reynolds Distinguished Professor in Economics, North Carolina State University

11:45am-12:00Noon, Prize Raffle

12:00Noon, Adjourn – Have a safe trip home! 

“Thank You” to those who served on the 2012 Summer Program & Social Committees

 Laura Altizer, Justin Amos, Robin Barham, Adrian Cox, Clayton Hainline, Karl Knapp,  Tracey Keyes, Kirsten Larson, Linda Lewis, Jamie Privuznak, Charles Smyre, and the NCLGBA Board of Directors

“Thank You” to our Conference Sponsors

Legislative Committee

Manager’s Board

  

2012 Summer Conference returns to Wilmington, July 25th-27th

To register, please click here to access the conference page

NCLGBA’s Summer 2012 Conference will return this year to the Hilton Riverside Hotel in Downtown Wilmington, starting Wednesday, July 25th.

The 3-day event will feature workshops covering communications, work/life balance, technology and other topics, as well as legislative updates from the NC League of Municipalities and NC Association of County Commissioners.

The conference will conclude on Friday, July 27th, with an economic update from NC State Economist, Dr. Michael Walden.

Registration, including the Wednesday reception, Thursday and Friday breakfast, and Thursday lunch, is $150 for NCLGBA members, $200 for non-members and $75 for first-time student attendees.

To register, please click here to access the conference page

Hotel rooms at the Hilton Riverside are available for $119/night, plus a $9/night parking fee. To reserve your room, call 910-763-5900 or visit www.hilton.com. Use the code “LGB” when making your reservation.

Room reservations must be made and conference registrations must be paid for by June 22nd.

To register, please click here to access the conference page

Applications Accepted for 2012 Conference Scholarship Program

Each year, NCLGBA offers students of MPA programs in North Carolina with an interest in local budgeting an opportunity to apply for “scholarships” to one of our conferences. The deadline for applications is April 9th.

Click Here to Download NCLGBA Scholarship Application

 

Eligibility Requirements

  • You are an active student and in good standing in one of the programs listed above.
  • You have an interest in working for local government in North Carolina or the region.
  • You are within two calendar years of completing a Master’s level program (at the time of application).
Award Description
  • Up to four recipients will receive two nights’ hotel accommodations and covered registration fees for either the Summer (July) or Winter (December) NCLGBA Conference. Dates and locations vary year to year so please visit http://www.nclgba.org for the most current information.
  • Recipients must use the scholarship at one of the two conferences in the year awarded.
  • Recipients will be recognized at the Summer Conference.
Award Criteria
Write a maximum one page essay on the following:

How will the current students of public administration impact North Carolina’s future?

Essay reviewers will rank submissions based on several factors including: clarity, grammar, and overall writing skills. References to budget innovation are encouraged. Written communication is critical to our profession and this exercise will reward excellent writing.

Submission

Click Here for a Scholarship ApplicationApplications may be submitted from March 9 through midnight April 9. Submit your application via email to mbrinkley@townofchapelhill.org with the words NCLGBA Scholarship Program in the Subject line. There is a maximum of one (1) application and essay submission allowed per student.

From NCLGBA Board Member Matt Brinkley:

One of the many benefits to students that attend the conferences is the potential to network with local government officials. Students will also hear from an excellent slate of presenters about all kinds of issues and opportunities that North Carolina local governments are dealing with right now.

Please help us to get the word out & we look forward to seeing your students at one of our upcoming conferences!

 

Introducing “Quarterly Report”

Click the image to view our first Quarterly Report

For 2012, NCLGBA will be distributing Quarterly Report, an email newsletter to our members and friends featuring information on upcoming conferences, professional activities, learning opportunities and other developments in the field of local government budgeting and finance.

You can check out our first issue of Quarterly Report by clicking here. We’ve also setup an archive page.