Analysis Brief – August 22, 2013

Job Announcements on NCLGBA Career Gateway

Finance Director – Town Of Selma (Closes 9/6/13)
Finance Director – City Of Oxford (Open Until Filled)

End of Session Legislative Updates Scheduled/Available

The 2013 session of the North Carolina General Assembly has concluded, and our supporting organizations have had the time to review passed and adopted legislation and provide comprehensive overviews of how the session impacted county and municipal governments.

Click Here for NC League of Municipalities’ End of 2013 Session Bulletin

Click Here for NC Association of County Commissioners 2013 Legislative Session Report

The UNC School of Government will present two webinars, scheduled for August 29th and September 5th, providing a comprehensive review of the session.

Both sessions start at 10:00 a.m. and are scheduled to last until 12:30 p.m. Each session is $125/site or individual wanting CPE credit. Both sessions can be purchased for the discounted price of $225. Click here for more information and to register online.

Session 1 Topics – Thursday, August 29th (Click Here to Register)

  • Public health
  • Mental health
  • Social Services
  • Elections
  • Community Planning and development
  • Environment

Session 2 Topics – Thursday, September 5th (Click Here to Register)

  • Local government authority and finance
  • Purchasing and contracting
  • Emergency management
  • Ethics
  • Economic development
  • Property tax
  • Criminal law

Wells Fargo Releases Outlook for North Carolina

Click Here to Download and Read

The report offers a good overview of current trends in the Tar Heel State, along with several key metro areas. Among its findings:

  • As noted many times before, unique characteristics to North Carolina’s economy not only delayed the arrival of the most recent recession, but have also contributed to a delayed recovery in many parts of the state.
  • Real GDP in North Carolina grew 2.7% for 2012, slightly above the national mark (2.5%)

  • Hiring is picking up, especially in the hospitality, information, professional and business services.
  • Unemployment remains high, especially in rural areas, and driven to a bottoming out in manufacturing and construction.
  • Tax reform, especially with respect to reduced individual and corporate income tax rates, should help North Carolina compete for jobs lost in recent years to states neighboring key metropolitan areas.
  • At its worst, housing prices statewide saw a 13.7% drop. Recent gains now put them approximately 5.7% below pre-recession levels, better than the 19% decline still present at the national level.
  • North Carolina is “defying” logic associated with the current global slowdown and achieving strong growth in exports, currently up 5.5% for the year. Growth is centered on China and Mexico, while trade to Canada, the State’s largest partner, has fallen close to 3%.
  • Raleigh’s economy is clearly outpacing most of the rest of the state and country, with respect to both economic activity and employment growth.

NC down nearly 56,000 Jobs since January

July unemployment was reported at 8.9% for the Tar Heel State, up slightly from 8.8% in June. The State lost more than 13,000 in July, and is down almost 56,000 since January. The January 2013 unemployment rate, however, was 9.5%.

Job losses so far are significant, but reductions in the labor force count are even more so, down nearly 80,000 from January. During the same time period last year (January-June 2012), the state labor force grew by nearly 28,000, and years before that saw increases or decreases between around the 20,000 range.

If the labor force in July was equal to its January total (4.776 million), the unemployment rate would be 10.4%.

Need Performance Measurement Training?

UNC School of Government has two workshops coming up of interest to those seeking to enhance their performance measurement skills. Registration for each worskhop is $130/person, and each workshop lasts one day.

Both workshops are taught by Dr. David Ammons,

Friday, September 6th – Performance Measurement 101: Designing Measures in Local Government for Accountability and Results This course fulfills the “Performance Measurement” requirement for North Carolina Budget & Evaluation Certification Program (click here for more information)

This workshop focuses on the fundamentals of performance measurement and the design of measures that strengthen local government performance. Participants will discuss the criteria for a good set of measures, tips for developing or refining performance measures, and the use of standards or benchmarks in performance comparisons.
Friday, October 4th – Practical Analytic Techniques for Local Government  This course fulfills the “Evaluation” requirement for North Carolina Budget & Evaluation Certification Program (click here for more information)
This course focuses on a variety of easy-to-apply analytic techniques and includes examples of successful analysis among local governments. Topics include the use of analysis to consider the need for additional employees, to diagnose work scheduling and routing problems, to make adjustments for the impact of inflation, and to analyze patterns of demand for a service.

“Local Food” interest you?

UNC School of Government, along with the Center for Environmental Farming Systems, will host a special webinar, “Local Food and Local Government,” on Wednesday, September 11th, 10am to 11:30am.

Site cost for the webinar is $125. Click here to register.

What’s the impact of local food? From the USDA:

According to the latest Census of Agriculture, direct sales of food products from farmers to individual consumers rose by nearly 50 percent between 2002 and 2007. Worth an estimated $1 billion in 2005, local food sales grew to $4.8 billion in 2007 and nearly $7 billion last year, according to industry estimates. For nearby businesses in major cities across the U.S., having a farmers market nearby means an average increase in sales of anywhere from $19,000 to $15 million (according to a Marketumbrella research paper published in 2012).

Small Business Sentiment improving, not Great

(Wells Fargo) Wells Fargo’s Small Business Confidence Index rose 9 points in the third quarter to 25, reaching its highest level in five years. Both the present situation and future expectations components of the survey increased during the quarter, but small businesses are clearly more upbeat about future prospects than they are about actual operating results over the past year. The present situation index rose 2 points during the quarter to 4, while expectations climbed 7 points to 21.

Indicators suggest upcoming Growth

(Wells Fargo) The Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.6 percent in July, with broad-based contributions from its underlying components, suggesting sustained growth for the economy. Only two components (capital good orders and average workweek for production workers) were negative.

LEI Contributors 072013

Real Estate Recovery yielding Mixed Results

Overall, the national real estate market is seeing recovery with respect to increased sale prices, reduced listing inventory and foreclosure stock, and increased issuance of permits for both single-family and multi-family construction.

Here’s some highlights from recent reports:

(Wells Fargo) Despite rising mortgage rates, existing home sales posted a better-than-expected 6.5 percent gain in July.  However, inventories rose for the sixth month, but remain at a historically low level. Distressed sales were unchanged.

(Wells Fargo) Housing starts increased 5.9 percent on the month, but all of the gain was in the volatile multifamily component. Single-family starts and permits fell on the month. Although the pullback in single-family starts and permits may be disconcerting, we are not worried… The NAHB/Wells Fargo Homebuilder Index reached its highest level since late 2005. So what is the disconnect? We suspect damp weather in the South continues to be the largest factor in the recent disappointing readings. The recent slowdown, however, suggests we could see some catch-up in construction activity later this year.

Most Realtors will tell you that real estate is primarily dependent on local conditions, meaning recovery activity is likely not to be consistent from place to place.  RealtyTrac found that when evaluating metropolitan areas for their first “Housing Market Recovery Index” report:

“The U.S. housing market has clearly shifted to recovery mode over the past 18 months, with home prices consistently rising and  foreclosures falling closer to pre-housing bubble levels,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “Still symptoms of the distress that plagued the housing market over the past seven years continue to linger, particularly in the form of a high percentage of underwater borrowers and distressed sales. This lingering distress is creating an uneven pace of recovery across different local markets.”

The report created some disagreement in Wilmington, as the coastal metro area was listed in the “Bottom 20” list with respect to its index score and reflection of a “lagging” market. Local Realtors, however, are not satisfied with the metric:

“While the Wilmington housing market overall is trending up, we acknowledge that challenges towards a full recovery still exist; however, we believe that characterizing our housing market in such a negative light is short sighted and inaccurate,” said WRAR President R. J. Alex in a news release yesterday…In July, homes sales in the Wilmington region were up 18 percent to 628 units sold compared to the same period the year prior. Average home sale prices were also up 4 percent to $244,130, according to data from Wilmington Multiple Listing Service.

Where’s Fuel Going

The last 30 days have seen some decline in gasoline prices, nationally and in North Carolina, with the average dropping about $0.10/gallon.

ncgasmth082313

Compared to a year ago, North Carolina prices are about 27 cents/gallon less (-7.3%), consistent with the national trend. North Carolina is also starting to see a broader discount gap between its average and the National Average, though the border states of South Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee continue to have lower prices (7 to 20 cents/gallon).

ncgasyr082313

 

The latest short-term outlook from the Energy Information Administration indicates that fuel prices should remain stable through 2014, with crude oil prices falling back some from recent gains.

chart

However, if current unrest in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East negatively impacts production activity, or results in the inability to transport product through the Suez Canal, substantial price shocks are highly likely.

 

Other Items

LGC publishes LGERS Retirement & Investment Disclosure Memo for FY 2013

Employment Security video series on Unemployment Insurance Law changes & implementation (YouTube)

Notes from ASPA’s “Presenting for the Information Age” Webinar (Scribd)

Overview of GASB’s new Pension Reporting Standards (GFOA)

Analysis on Impact of Tax Exemption for Municipal Bond Interest in North Carolina (NACO)

Wells Fargo’s August Economic Outlook (YouTube)

Resources from 2013 Community Development Research Conference (Atlanta Fed)

Interview with Economist John Haltiwanger on various national economic issues (GDP, jobs, growth, etc.) (Richmond Fed Magazine)

LA County changes policy, prevents school bond campaign donors from issuing bonds (LA Times)

Analysis Roundup for November 21, 2012

Watch the skies… “gobble, gobble”

Wells Fargo Economics
Leading Indicators Continue Slow Growth Trend

The national index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), updated earlier today, only increased 0.2% for October, indicating continued slow growth.

The six-month annualized rate of change in the LEI has
weakened since the start of the year, but remains well above the
negative 3.5 percent rate which often signals recession…

After the interest rate spread, the next largest contribution was
the Leading Credit Index, followed by first-time claims for
unemployment insurance. As fewer people file for jobless
benefits, this component pushes LEI higher.

 

BLS/NC Employment Security
October Sees Continued, Slow Employment Growth

Total Employment in North Carolina increased by nearly 44,000 in October, according to last week’s release of seasonally adjusted employment and unemployment data. The adjusted unemployment rate declined from 9.6% to 9.3%. Since last October, the state has gained a little more than 95,000 jobs.

With respect to nonfarm payrolls (more accurate depiction of permanent workforce), North Carolina only saw an increase of 8,000 jobs in October, all the result of private sector employment growth (+8,900). Since last October, total nonfarm payrolls have grown by 35,700, with private sector growth of 40,000. This means that there have been some employment losses in the public sector, reflecting the need for state agencies and local governments to reduce their workforces in response to permanent fiscal challenges.

 

Overall and private payrolls still remain more than 6% below pre-recession high levels.

Wells Fargo Economics
November Outlook focuses Globally

This month’s video outlook from Wells Fargo Economics Group provides further analysis on current global economic conditions and how they are influencing conditions here in the US. This month’s outlook host, Wells Fargo Economist Michael Brown, will present an Economic Update during the Winter 2012 NCLGBA Conference in Concord on December 7th.

NCSU/Dr. Michael Walden
NC Leading Indicators Improve a Little

Dr. Walden’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators in North Carolina did show a slight increase for September (+0.2%), ending four consecutive months of decline. All of the measures incorporated into the index showed improvement except building permits, which fell by 25%.

Compared to a year ago, the overall index is up 2.4%, with all categories except personal earnings showing improvement.

Wells Fargo/Modeled Behavior
October Home Sales Continue Market Improvement Trend

2012 has been a good year for the housing market, compared to where its position since the start of the last recession. Existing sales continued to improve in October, volume increasing 2.1% to an annual rate of 4.79 million units.

In a blog post, UNC School of Government Economist Karl Smith provides some analysis on the appearance of growth in housing starts, a prediction he discussed during his presentation at the Winter 2011 NCLGBA Conference. If trends pick up in a manner consistent with his original prediction (which he admits anticipated housing growth sooner in 2012 than what actually took place), overall economic activity might look better in 2013.

Finviz/Gas Buddy
Oil Prices Rise with Middle East Tension, Gas Prices Slide Little More

Some parts of NC are seeing retail prices for Regular Unleaded below $3.20/Gallon this week. Crude prices did go above $90/bbl this week as a result of hostilities initiated by terrorists in Gaza against Israel, creating concern for a prolonged conflict and potential supply disruptions. Weak demand, however, does limit the impact of this developing situation, especially here in the US.

Articles of Interest

Philadelphia Fed – November 2012 Business Outlook Survey

Firms responding to the November Business Outlook Survey reported declines in business activity this month following the disruptive effects of Hurricane Sandy on the region. The survey’s indicators for general activity, which had shown improvement in October, fell back into negative territory this month. Firms reported slight declines in shipments, employment, and hours worked. Indicators for the firms’ expectations over the next six months were near their levels in the previous month, but expectations for future employment and capital spending have weakened in the last two months.

WSJ – Investment Falls Off a Cliff


Forbes – The Entrepreneurs of Plymouth Rock

WITN – Computer Frozen, Message Says You’re Under FBI Investigation

GovLoop – Either Way a Fiscal Cliff

TBJ – Top 7 Emerging Trends in Real Estate

Bloomberg – Hospital Medicare Cash Lures Doctors as Costs Increase

St. Louis Fed – Price Level Targeting… The Fed Has It About Right(?)

Census – Facts for Features: Thanksgiving Day!

Have a Happy, Safe and Enjoyable Thanksgiving Holiday!

 

Analysis Roundup for September 21, 2012

Here’s the latest collection of topics discussed in economic reports of note from financial institutions and government agencies.

BLS/NC Employment Security
North Carolina Unemployment Rate Highest in Southeast

This morning’s release of state-based employment data was not good for the Tar Heel State. Seasonally adjusted statistics indicate only 1,100 nonfarm payroll jobs created in August, while total unemployed grew by 5,900. North Carolina’s unemployment rate rose from 9.6% to 9.7%, making it slightly higher than South Carolina (9.6%) and keeping it significantly above other states in the Southeastern US.

Overall, 26 states saw their jobless rates go up. North Carolina’s unemployment rate remains among the highest in the nation.

Special Report
Quantitative Easing Returns for the Long-Term

At least through the remainder of the year, the Federal Reserve will be engaging in the purchase of Mortgage-Backed Securities in an effort to help improve general economic growth.

This latest round of “Quantitative Easing” was announced last Thursday by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke following the latest meeting of The Fed’s Open Market Committee.

Officially, the purpose of Quantitative Easing (QE) is for the Federal Reserve to expand the supply of available money and use it to purchase low-risk securities. As a result, according to the official explanation, holders of other capital will redirect their investments to those with higher risks in an effort to achieve some sort of positive return.

Unlike prior rounds of QE that had specific limits on how much in securities could be bought overall, QE3 sets a monthly limit of $40 billion. At the present, it is intended to last through the end of the year. The Fed will also continue to move its holdings of short-term securities into long-term securities (i.e., Operation Twist) at a rate of $45 billion a month, for a total monthly impact of $85 billion.

While Chairman Bernanke mentioned QE3 being in place through the end of year, he also indicated that the program would be open-ended based on the evaluation of economic benchmarks:

From Wells Fargo Economics Group:

Importantly, the Fed noted that if labor market conditions do not improve “substantially”, it would continue the MBS bond-buying program plus potentially undertake further easing measures. Moreover, the Fed “expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens”. Bottom line, whenever rates do rise, we should expect a more gradual-than-normal tightening process to unfold.

Following the announcement late last week, general market activity was positive going into the weekend. However, with the arrival of less-than-impressive earning reports from several major corporations, along with continued reports suggesting lackluster overall economic performance, markets are trending downward.

Increasing the money supply via QE3 has the potential to facilitate greater inflation, especially with commodities. Initially, crude oil remained near $100/barrel following the QE3 announcement, though its price has dropped into the mid-to-low $90’s due to disappointing economic news. We’ll see later if this is having any impact on actual prices for gasoline.

Wells Fargo Economics Group
Second Half 2012 Outlook Undercut

Wells Fargo Chief Economist John Silvia cut the group’s projection for second half GDP growth to 1.5%, based on a host of negative reports involving most of the elements contributing to overall economic activity. Watch the video to learn more, or find a full summary of the comments here at Diminished Return.

USDA
Drought all but over for NC Farmlands

The USDA’s latest weekly report on pasture and range conditions finds that less than 10% of North Carolina’s fields are in “poor to very poor condition,” among the best ratings in the country and significantly better than the State’s modest results last year.

Overall, this is good news for the State’s agricultural economy, which should expect strong fall harvests, good prices in the commodities market, and great potential for winter crops and next year’s growing seasons.

NAHB/Wells Fargo & National Association of Realtors
Housing Growing, for a “New Normal” Environment

The latest update to the National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Index shows continued improvement, as the index returned to a level unseen since mid-2006.

Housing starts over the summer improved compared to levels in recent years, though they are still significantly below levels that existed prior to the recession and bursting of the housing bubble.

Historic low-interest rates also contributed to a substantial increasing in sales of existing housing for August, with overall volume increasing 7.8% last month. For the year, sales are up 4.1%. Inventories of existing homes have also subsided from post-recession peaks, including a significant decline in distressed inventories.

However, we do not know how much distressed inventory being withheld by banks and investors still remains to be processed through the market. With the media home price increasing this year by 9.5%, there may be some reason to believe the worst is behind us, though it is not absolutely certain.

GasBuddy/FinViz
Oil slips a little, Gasoline does not 

Crude oil futures slipped a little this past week following news of continued economic uncertainty. Given the breakout of additional violence in the Middle East, including the murder of the US Ambassador to Libya, the fact that prices did not spike upward in light of growing hostilities on the ground suggests that the market for crude is stable, and thus demand is not growing on a global scale.

If global demand is not increasing, or is in fact declining, it is also an indication that China’s economic woes are greater than identified.

With respect to gasoline prices, there is typically a delay between fluctuations in crude to their appearance with respect to end product. At the same time, while corn prices have declined 7% in the past 2 weeks, they are still close to the historic high for the grain.

Consequently, we have yet to see a noticeable drop in prices for motor fuel compared to where they were at peak around the Labor Day holiday.

At the same time, North Carolina prices remain closer to the national average, indicating a peak price situation within the state itself.

QE3 may also play a role in keeping gasoline prices high, especially if greater inflation kicks in. Overall, gasoline prices not only significantly impact local government budgets, but they also have a large influence on disposable personal income. Higher fuel prices in August contributed to an increase in the level of total US retail sales, a situation where greater spending does not necessarily reflect improved economic activity.

Worth Checking Out

Here are some articles worth taking a look at involving NC local governments, or possible strategies for local budgeting and finance:

Wilmington Star News: Brunswick board moves to take control of health, DSS agencies

Daily Southerner: Edgecombe County Manager discusses human services consolidation

Triad Business Journal: Can Greensboro learn from Raleigh about how to build a performing arts center?

GoUpstate.com: Shutterfly moving facility, 600 jobs from NC to SC

Charlotte Observer: Bank of America declines to confirm job cuts

Daily Southerner: LGC rules Princeville rehiring illegal

PA Times: Social Media, Government Engagement, and Generation Y

Triangle Business Journal: UNC to offer MPA Program Online

Training Opportunities

Here’s information on upcoming online training events

October 10th – 2pm ET – FREE – Governing Magazine presents “Streamline Budgeting: Break Free from Outdated Processes”

October 18th – 1pm ET – FREE – ASPA presents “Mentoring Essentials: What Every Mentor and Protege Should Know”

Silvia suggests “Wobbly Legs” holding up our economy

Earlier this week, John Silvia, the Charlotte-based Chief Economist of the Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group, gave a presentation to Cornell’s School of Hotel Administration that outlined concerns he had over current economic conditions. A “Special Commentary” containing information from the presentation is available below:

Special Commentary – Four Wobbly Legs Beneath the Throne of Economic Growth.

Silvia specifically pointed to four specific areas of uncertainty that could prove to be the difference between the start of long-term economic growth, a return to malaise, or the resumption of declining positions:

  • While aggregate job numbers might indicate an increase in employment opportunities, the distortion effect of the stimulus has focused most growth toward the public sector. In addition, job opportunities in skilled trades have disappeared in several parts of the country, creating a serious problem for groups of people “in the middle” that will either need retraining or relocation. Silvia’s commentary suggests that job supplies will not return back to pre-recession levels for two to three years, an estimate less austere than the five to six year estimate made recently by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee.
  • Generally speaking, the future of the housing market will reflect significant corrections with respect to inventory, types of future construction, and reset of actual values due to manipulative impact of past financing and subsidy programs.
  • The growth and permanent presence of a true global market have served to minimize price changes in “core” products and services. As a result, many businesses believe they do not have the pricing power they possessed in the future, potentially minimizing the opportunity for continued significant growth in corporate profits. Therefore, recent growth in profits will likely subside, with no certainty that growth rates will be significant over an extended period of time.
  • The utilization of expanding Federal deficits and issuing unprecedented levels of Federal debt in an attempt to offset the negative impacts of the economic downturn have not created the desired impact. Silvia contends that permanent shifts in the structure of our economy and its influencing factors have changed the reliability of the “multiplier effect” associated with the Keynesian economic approach preferred in the public policy arena since the Great Depression.

On the final of these points, Silvia offers explicit warnings with respect to the actions being taken by politicians and public policy experts:

What have we observed as lessons for decision-makers from the events of the past year? From our viewpoint, there are three problems, or biases, that have hindered effective decision-making over the past year. First, and most critically, is the overconfidence bias of both public and private decision-makers. This is most readily seen in the public sector with the assertion on the economic multiplier effect and the prediction of jobs and growth. In reality, our economic models are not perfectly specified or perfectly rational. Instead, real-world decisions exhibit bounded rationality—we look for an answer that works, satisfices, not the perfect answer.7 We have limited resources of time and ability to try all solutions. Therefore, we find a solution that works, if only temporarily, or imperfectly. We “sacrifice.” Unfortunately, the multiplier approach that was used to guide public policy as a rule of thumb was a critical mistake given the implications of the size of the deficit in a global capital market as examined above as well as the special role of credit constraints in the current recession/recovery period. Private market decision-makers simply cannot rely primarily on such rules of thumb as an indication for future top-line revenue gains.

Second, there is a confirmation bias, certainly in public decision-making and, unfortunately in the media, where evidence in support of the suggested or enacted program is exulted and signs of failure ignored. The whole concept of “saved” jobs is a classic example of this bias. We cannot recall any discussion about stimulus “saving” jobs in either undergraduate or graduate courses. This concept presents a false target for success, especially given the real structural challenges for the labor market as highlighted in our earlier discussion. Moreover, “saving” public-sector jobs today by issuing more debt that must be repaid out of future generations and, therefore, cost future private-sector jobs, is a misleading enterprise. Politicians make political decisions, not economic ones, and awarding jobs to “what is” today at the cost of “what will be” tomorrow is not good economic policy. For the media, there is too much of a tendency to decide the answer before looking at the evidence. Political biases dictate the choice of sound bites and anecdotes, while the public fails to get the careful discussions and analysis it needs to make informed decisions.

Finally, there is a sunk cost problem where policymakers up the ante in their commitment to a program even as the program is a failure. Military escalation abroad and climbing Mt. Everest are classic examples of this bias.8 In public policy, continued large public subsidies to agencies and even private companies as well as consideration of a more of the same, just another stimulus program, reflects this bias. There is very little honest discussion in public circles on the failures of these programs—which is understood given the penalties to any public servant who ever admits a mistake. Many thoughtful analysts doubt the wisdom of another stimulus program given what we know as the high level of uncertainty of success.
For decision-makers, the problem remains to develop a set of guidelines for strategic decision-making given the wobbly nature of the outlook for economic growth and the high level of uncertainty, not simply of risk, in the environment. Finally, private decision-makers must also be aware of the decision-making traps that appear to have affected the effectiveness of decision-making in recent years.

Finally, there is a sunk cost problem where policymakers up the ante in their commitment to a program even as the program is a failure. Military escalation abroad and climbing Mt. Everest are classic examples of this bias.8 In public policy, continued large public subsidies to agencies and even private companies as well as consideration of a more of the same, just another stimulus program, reflects this bias. There is very little honest discussion in public circles on the failures of these programs—which is understood given the penalties to any public servant who ever admits a mistake. Many thoughtful analysts doubt the wisdom of another stimulus program given what we know as the high level of uncertainty of success.For decision-makers, the problem remains to develop a set of guidelines for strategic decision-making given the wobbly nature of the outlook for economic growth and the high level of uncertainty, not simply of risk, in the environment. Finally, private decision-makers must also be aware of the decision-making traps that appear to have affected the effectiveness of decision-making in recent years.

You can download a copy of this Special Commentary (PDF) below:

Special Commentary – Four Wobbly Legs Beneath the Throne of Economic Growth